PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Competitive Virginia races could play a critical role in the battle for Congress

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FREDERICKSBURG,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Va. (AP) — Virginia’s marquee matchups for U.S. House races in Tuesday’s election feature tight contests in a district being vacated by three-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger and a district known to flip between Democratic and Republican control.

In Virginia’s 7th House District, Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman are entrenched in a competitive race to succeed Spanberger, who is vacating her seat in favor of a gubernatorial bid next year.

Down the coast, Republican U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans is trying to cement her hold on her seat in a district known to swing between candidates nominated by both parties. Kiggans faces Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal in the 2nd District, a seat in which Kiggans ousted a Democratic incumbent in 2022.

This year, federal elections are closer than ever — a slim number of races may determine which party will clinch a congressional majority. In an intense battle over a few seats, competitive districts in Virginia and elsewhere will play a critical role in the fight for the House.

All U.S. House seats were up for election on Tuesday, including eight other districts in Virginia. State Sen. John McGuire is battling Democrat Gloria Witt in Virginia’s 5th District after narrowly defeating incumbent U.S. Rep. Bob Good by less than a percentage point in a bitter primary, which led to a recount in August.

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In the 7th District, the race between Vindman and Anderson quickly became one of the most competitive in the country, with Republicans hoping to make gains in districts in which they don’t face an incumbent. Vindman, despite being a political newcomer, developed a national profile after blowing the whistle alongside his brother during Trump’s first impeachment. The former Army officer focused his campaign around abortion rights and the threat of MAGA extremism on democracy. Anderson, a fellow veteran and former Green Beret, pitched himself as the more affable candidate, and centered his campaign around the economy.

Republicans steadily represented the district for nearly 50 years until Spanberger defeated former Republican Rep. David Brat in 2018.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Democrats are putting their weight behind Cotter Smasal to reclaim the House seat after Kiggans ousted former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria. The 2nd has traditionally been a swing district, oscillating in recent years between Republicans and Democrats who served in the Navy.

Differences between the candidates have mostly traced the national fault lines between the two major political parties. In her pitch for reelection, Kiggans focused on issues such as the economy and border security, while Cotter Smasal has centered her campaign on abortion access and defending American democracy following the Jan. 6 insurrection. In a district filled with military veterans, both candidates have cited the need to help veterans and address the rising cost of living.

And up in northern Virginia, Democrats are trying to hold their ground after Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton announced she would not be running for reelection after being diagnosed with progressive supranuclear palsy. In an area that has trended liberal, Democrat Suhas Subramanyam is up against Republican Mike Clancy.

Subramanyam, formerly a tech adviser under the Obama administration, began his political career as a state lawmaker in 2020 and was elected to the Virginia Senate last November. His campaign against Clancy, a corporate attorney who previously served in the Navy’s Office of the General Counsel, came after Subramanyam clinched the Democratic nomination in a crowded primary in June.

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Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.